The iPhone 16 launch day is one of the most anticipated days of the year in the smartphone world, and even if you have no intention of buying an iPhone, it's worth seeing what Apple has in store and how its new device compares to the best phones out there.

The iPhone 16 will be of more interest than just for the new AI-powered features that will be included in iOS 18. We expect new screen sizes and improved cameras in the iPhone 16 Pro model. Meanwhile, all iPhones should feature Apple's latest A18 system-on-chip.

In short, when the new model arrives, we can expect to see complete changes to the iPhone in terms of both hardware and software. The biggest question remaining is when that will be.

Since the fall launch is still several months away, the specific release date for the iPhone 16 is not yet clear. However, thanks to Apple's track record with iPhone launches and some rumors about the release date, we can make a pretty good guess as to when the new model will be available.

Here is our best guess as to when the iPhone 16's likely release will happen, in case you are trying to decide if you are going to upgrade your phone once the new model arrives.

Looking at the history of Apple iPhone releases - especially recent history - you notice some clear patterns. For example, the current iPhone SE 2022 shipped on March 18, 2022, etc. With the exception of the iPhone SE models released in the spring, Apple holds its iPhone launch events in the fall. By doing so, the new models hit retailer shelves in time for the holiday shopping season, the most important quarter of Apple's fiscal calendar.

However, one can delve further into Apple's release history by looking at the timing of cell phone launches going back nearly a decade. Only once in the past decade has Apple released a cell phone in October, and that was at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Otherwise, Apple's phone launches in September, with a full release approximately 10 days after the launch event.

Last year, all four iPhone 15 models debuted on September 12 and were available by September 22. iPhone 14 was released on a similar schedule in 2023, with the iPhone 14 Plus shipping a few weeks after the rest of the new lineup.

This raises another point about Apple's iPhone track record. Typically, cell phone manufacturers release all new models at the same time. However, since 2015, Apple has had to stagger the release of some phones four times. Usually, this is due to supply constraints when introducing new sizes to the lineup. iPhone 16 Pro's display is expected to grow to 6.3 inches and iPhone 16 Pro Max's screen to 6.9 inches, so supply chain issues have prevented iPhone 16 We have not yet heard of any potential staggering of the release of the four models in the lineup, but it could be related to this year's release.

One last thing about Apple's new iPhone release schedule. Only once in the past decade has the company held a launch event later than September 15, and that was the year of the pandemic that introduced the iPhone 12 lineup to the world. If one wanted to determine an iPhone 16 launch date, one would expect it to be in the first two weeks of September.

At this early stage, nothing definitive is known about an iPhone 16 release date. Most rumors about Apple's new phone point to a fall release, with some citing its likely September release window.

This may be a case of "no news is good news" since any reports about a later-than-expected iPhone 16 release would probably have surfaced by now. At least until there are some reports, we can only assume that the iPhone 16 is in full development and production.

Apple already has its hands full with upcoming events, including an event on May 7 that is expected to unveil the new iPad and the WWDC 2024 developer conference in June. Once these events are over and the fall release date approaches, more details about the release will be revealed.

Given the scarcity of guidance on the iPhone 16 release date rumors, we have taken to speculating on a specific date for Apple's iPhone launch. In other words, we will rely primarily on the assumption that Apple will repeat the strategy it has used in eight of the last nine years.

Let's break the calendar with four ideas in mind.

Labor Day falls on Monday, September 2 this year, so unless Apple holds an event on a Wednesday, we imagine that the first week of September is excluded from a possible iPhone 16 launch event. (This is because the 2018 iPhone XR/iPhone XS launch event coincided with the anniversary of the September 11 attacks on the Tuesday of that year.) Otherwise, the iPhone 16 announcement would be the week of September 9 or September 16.

We speculate the week of September 9, given that Apple prefers to announce new phones before the midpoint of the month. This would mean that September 10 would be the date that Apple would hold its launch event. Assuming Apple follows its normal cell phone launch pattern, iPhone 16 pre-orders would begin later that week and would be on retail store shelves by September 20.

Our guess of a September 10 launch date for the iPhone 16 is just that, a guess. As more definitive rumors emerge, we will update our prediction accordingly.

For now, though, it sounds like the iPhone 16 is on track for a September launch, even if we don't yet know for sure on what date that launch will take place.