The Apple Vision Pro is not for everyone, but if you are holding off on purchasing an Apple headset until the next major hardware upgrade, you may have to wait a while. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo expects no major hardware upgrade for the Vision Pro until at least 2027.

But this is not bad news, especially for those who want an inexpensive Vision headset; Kuo predicts that mass production of new Vision Pro models may not begin until sometime in 2027. Production of the less expensive Vision headsets, however, could begin in late 2025 or early 2026. Assuming no delays, this would be well in time for a mid- to late-2026 launch, but it would still be a fairly long wait.

Kuo's analysis suggests that Apple has not yet begun work on either model. He also said that the less expensive Vision headset will focus on streamlining production and supply chain processes, rather than intentionally lowering specifications. Kuo noted that the latest plans are set to limit spec changes to ensure a user experience similar to that of the first-generation Vision Pro.

But back to the present, Kuo expects Apple to expand beyond the U.S. market once the supply of Vision Pro headsets improves. With U.S. shipments expected to hover between 200,000 and 250,000 units by the end of the year, and production expanding to 700,000 to 800,000 units, Apple will have to sell these headsets somewhere, even if it does not ship them all.

Kuo believes that Apple will launch the Vision Pro in other regions before WWDC in June, but the schedule may depend on whether Apple can properly modify the software to comply with different rules and regulations. For example, the EU is forcing Apple to open up iOS as part of the Digital Markets Act, and it seems unlikely to stop there.

In the U.S., demand appears to be declining, with shipping taking only 3-5 days. This means that Apple has an incentive to move forward with a broader, international release.

The good news is that, regardless of what social media says, Kuo's sources estimate that only 1% of sales end up in returns. It appears that 20-30% of these returns are due to the user's inability to set up the Vision Pro headset. That's pretty wild when you think about it.

Kuo notes that everything about the Apple Vision Pro was in line with Apple's expectations. So at this early stage we won't tell you what we might see, perhaps because it is all in flux. Needless to say, we will need to be patient if we are to look forward to what comes next.