For some time now, we have been under the impression that the regular iPhone 12 would cost the same as the iPhone 11 while the iPhone 12 Pro series might see a modest price increase. Sources said it would likely start at $699, the same as the 64GB iPhone 11, and some even optimistically predicted a price drop to $649.

Now another leaker is pouring cold water on this optimism on Weibo. Emphasizing that "Apple is not a charity," this user suggests that the cost of the components has gone up by $50 thanks to the inclusion of a 5G modem and OLED screen. Taking this at face value, the cheapest new iPhone might cost $749.

Before analyzing the claim, a few words about the source. He goes by a name that translates to "cell phone chip guy" and has amassed about 300,000 followers on Chinese social networking sites; TrendForce analysts are predicting a price increase of $50 to $100 for all iPhone 12 models.

So will the iPhone 12 really cost $749? On the one hand, numerous reports have highlighted the cost-cutting measures Apple is implementing this year. For example, there are strong rumors that the iPhone 12 family will not include a charger or EarPods. In addition, there are reports that Apple has found a way to reduce battery costs by 40-50% compared to the iPhone 11.

And while Leaker is right to emphasize that Apple is not a charity, it is nonetheless frighteningly rich. If the company wanted to subsidize the cost of the iPhone 12 a bit to boost sales, it could do so without breaking a sweat - especially if it was confident that enough of the buyers would subscribe to its new subscription service, Apple One. After all, we are in a Covid-19-driven recession, and Apple may think that the PR of keeping prices unchanged is worth the modest hit to revenue.

Then again, history is not on our side on this one. As the chart below shows, iPhone price trends are very straightforward, and not good news for those on a limited budget.

While there have been fluctuations, and the graph has been softened by price reductions on older models, Apple's flagship iPhone has risen in price from $600 in 2007 to $1,449 in 2020. Even adjusting for inflation, this is a steep increase.

After all, no one has ever gone broke betting that Apple products are expensive; you can hope for a launch price of $649 to $699, but you might want to prepare yourself for a $749 bill just in case.