While we don't expect the Apple Watch Ultra 3 to arrive next year, future models are taking shape, according to a new report from supply chain market research firm TrendForce.

Two things are worth noting at this early stage: first, the next-generation Apple Watch Ultra's screen is expected to use microLED display technology for the first time.

The second is that this screen will be the largest to date, with a diagonal size of 2.12 inches, a significant increase from the Apple Watch Ultra 2's 1.93 inches.

This 10% increase may raise some eyebrows; the Apple Watch Ultra already feels large on a small wrist, and the case weighs 61.4 grams, which is not light. In fact, our wearables expert, Kate Kozuch, admits that despite her praise of the large screen for everyday use, she sometimes has to remove it at night for comfort.

Perhaps thinner bezels will absorb most of this, and Apple may even find a way to make the wearable lighter. We will have to wait and see.

The second change mentioned is less controversial. MicroLED technology, which uses microscopic LEDs, can be brighter and thinner than OLEDs and has a longer lifespan. In other words, if microLEDs are used in the Apple Watch for the first time, it will be worth the wait.

However, a considerable wait is expected: according to TrendForce, this microLED version of the Apple Watch Ultra is not expected until 2026. The company has previously stated that this delay is due to manufacturing difficulties: low yields and associated high costs.

While high costs are expected to be relatively contained by 2026, wearables are still likely to become more expensive in the future; according to TrendForce's analysis, prices by then "could be below $120, which is 2.5 to 3 times current OLED panel prices. This is equivalent to 2.5 to 3 times the current OLED panel price," according to the report. The report calls this "a reasonable range for a new technology," but consumers who are already paying $799 for current models may disagree.

Of course, just because the microLED-equipped model is due in 2026 does not mean another Ultra model will not be available before then. It is possible that Apple will refresh it with other features before then, even if it is a faster chipset, so that it does not lag behind the less expensive models.

Nevertheless, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said that we can rule out an Apple Watch Ultra 3 in 2024 unless development starts at the latest this month.