Witnessing the postponement of the release date for "Bond 25: It's Too Soon to Die" due to the coronavirus issue, it seemed like something big was happening in a year of constant change already in the media world So at Tom's Guide's office, we began to wonder what would happen next
Would we be able to see blockbusters on our giant flat screens at home; would summer blockbusters like F9: Fast & Furious 9 be able to slow their pace from May to December?
To find out, I reached out to Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at ComScore; Dergarabedian is not yet ready to be concerned about changes in how we stream, and by referring to specific details I initiated our conversation [Last weekend, the first weekend of box office attention in North America about the coronavirus, all movie theaters in North America and Canada were open And "Invisible Man" was a huge success, earning nearly $50 million worldwide and $30 million in North America
Dergarabedian emphasized the part about the movie theaters being open, which, at least for now, He gives a solid argument that the situation is likely to remain stable He also pointed to the very near future for when we will likely know a little more about the state of things
Of course, there is another big piece of data coming up This weekend is a really important one: the Pixar movie "Onward" is coming out," he said 'It's a family-friendly movie that's doing well so far and looks like it could gross between $40 and $45 million this weekend'
And if "Onward" opens strong As long as the theaters are open, people will think, "Let's go to the movies"
I'm not going to dispute that COVID-19 could boost box office receipts
"Obviously, people have to be aware of their own health and how they deal with that is a personal decision," says Dergarabedian But I plan to spend this weekend like any other weekend I'm going to the cinema on Friday, to a brewery event with live wrestling on Saturday, and to the gym a number of times in between
The cinema open house is what keeps the business open As Dergarabedian told me, "In North America, and in most cinemas around the world that are open, the impact is zero" However, Dergarabedian notes that "in China, Korea, and Italy, box office revenues are completely depressed because of the unavailability of movie theaters"
And it was not only because of coronavirus concerns that Bond moved Dergarabedian explained that such decisions are not made lightly
"Obviously for the studios, they are looking at this very carefully, and we saw the James Bond movie moved to November, and it made sense for that movie
"Once you have a release date," he continued, "marketing, one-sheets, trailers, etc, are fixed So I'm sure there was some major discussion at MGM UA before they made that decision to change it"
As for those who are concerned Dergarabedian said, "A lot of articles are now saying that all the studios are trying to move the film, but moving the film is a much bigger problem than people think People are speculating about 'Mulan' and 'Quiet Place 2,' but there is no indication that they will move"
Dergarabedian noted the possibility of delays He said, "In the international arena, right now, there are films that are counting on a lot of international box office, and China is the second-largest market in the world, and there's no indication that they're going to move "
When I asked if it would be possible to release films at home at the same time as in theaters, in the form of some sort of high-end iPPV or video-on-demand, Dergarabedian said it was a "very interesting idea" before dismissing it outright
"I know that the theatrical release window is sacred to cinemas and that cinemas have never been on board with such an attempt
And now the cinema is doing well Dergarabedian said that "people are keeping the habit of using both movie theaters and streaming services," and that box office revenues are up 25% year over year
Once again, Dergarabedian set its sights on Pixar: if it is a great box office this weekend, with families and children rushing to see "Onward As long as the cinema is open, it's status quo"
I wouldn't necessarily say things will stay that way, and he also observes that "in every business, everyone is watching all of this and strategizing to make the best of this very difficult situation in an agile and creative way"
Streaming services are likely to distance themselves a bit from movie theaters for now
Dergarabedian says, "Streaming is more disruptive than cinema at the moment, and the market is very fragmented: And people are stuck with the same viewing habits, whether on a big screen or a small screen"
Hopefully, there will be no dramatic changes in civic life that could upset the balance
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